The Dearing Dialogue

United Democratic Front (UDF) and Malawi Congress Party (MCP) officials threw in the towel on their long (over a year) fight to implement section 65 of the Malawi Constitution that calls for MPs, “who defect from the party that sponsored them, which is described as ‘crossing the floor’, are to be declared vacant. Rather than joining the DPP, those MPs who crossed the floor would now be excluded from parliament” (Relief Web).  While many have called Section 65 an “important” guideline in the Constitution to ensure the rule of law and democratic goverance is followed in this young democracy, I would say that is somewhat narrow thinking, given the current state of economic affairs.

Malawi and its MPs in Parliament need to concentrate on poverty alleviation measures, not avenues for redemption of loss power, something both MCP and UDF members face today (even though UDF holds a majority in Parliament, it fails to pass effective legislation).  President Mutharika, who moved from the UDF to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2003, did so in order to be an effective policy-maker.  He knew the crutch of Bakili Muluzi’s presence as both former President and present UDF party chairman (and hopeful future Presidential contender) were matters that would hold back a progressive agenda of economic change.

With the recent end in the Sect 65 fight, Malawi has the opportunity to bring forward effective legislation.  Instead of bickering over power and political nuances, legislators can argue over how to implement poverty alleviation programs, issues they were elected to solve.

Bingu wa Mutharika, President of Malawi, has done a decent job cracking down on corruption in Malawi’s young free market democracy.  He has even taken his predecessor, Bakili Muluzi to task in accounting for numerous issues of corruption to include using his office in order to empower himself and his party the United Democratic Front (UDF).  Mutharika’s years in office may be enticing him to follow a similar path as his predecessor.  Allegations that he purchased 4 Toyota vehicles duty-free and gave them to his political party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) raises the spectar of corruption because it is the same allegation placed on Muluzi.  I can’t imagine Mutharika getting involved with the same misconduct as Muluzi, so the explanation should be interesting.

So says Senator Harry Reid, as quoted by the NY Times.  I agree with him.  Of course, it was lost years ago when we failed to take account of thousands of years of history and culture.  It is not an indictment on our servicemen and women who spill blood everyday, rather one on the incompent administration in Washington.  Dwelling on this matter is of little consequence.  What will come about with a collapsed state of Iraq?  That is more important. 

• A clash of cultures.  Shia and Sunnis will battle it out in the streets.  It does not help that both sides are funded by outside sources.  The Sunnis by America, Saudia Arabia, and Pakistan.  The Shia by Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Iraq is thus a proxy war, much like Vietnam was between the Americans and Soviets.
• The inevitable rise of an Islamic state.  No matter which side wins out the bloodfest, an Islamic state will materialize.  That is what any democratic vote would bring today or any long-fought battle.  With Shiia representing the majority (60%) in Iraq, and making up the vast majority in Iran - the dawning of a Shiia empire has already shown its light.
• The Fall of Saudi Arabia.  The Saudi regime has called for the war in Iraq since the 90s since it provides their Wahhabi extremists an outlet.  The regime is corrupt to the bone and every Saudi outside the regime knows it and despises it.  A Shiia Iraq will likely bring strength to the Shiia minority in Saudi Arabia.  All of those weapons the Saud family purchases from Boeing for its personal protection would not likely stop an all out rebellion. 
• Worldwide Recession.  Robert Baer in the first chapter of Sleeping with the Devil  paints a picture of a virtual plug to the oil spigots if the Al Jubayl oil field were taken out.  A rebellion in Saudi Arabia would send oil prices through the roof and cut-off supplies to world markets in a way that would send us into one of the deepest recessions we’d ever see.  The US economy thrives due to a constant and steady flow of Saudi crude.  If that were suddenly stopped due to instability in Saudi Arabia, I can only imagine what would happen.

Of course all of this could have been prevented if Americans actually paid more attention and were more active in the administration of their government.  Instead we were governed by fear, and like sheep, led over the cliff. 

It looks like he is throwing his hat in the ring of the Malawian presidency one more time.  How will he fair?  That depends if he can rally the support of both the public and his own party members.  Presently as UDF (United Democratic Front) party chairman, he is being defied by his own allies. 

See:  UDF MPs defy Muluzis Instructions

He has a close group of powerful colleagues that may be able to provide the support he needs to lynchpin his way into a successful campaign.  Key to his success are members of parliament.  If they rally behind him, it will be for their own survival.   Muluzi is likely to play the dirty game of ethnic politics in order to rally groups towards his favor.  Hopefully its stays relatively clean, given the growing division caused by years of rough and tumble politics and a glut of self-interested politicians. 

President Bingu wa Mutharika on the other hand has the support of international organizations and governments.  These are likely to aid him in a re-election campaign.  If he’s smart, he’ll stay out of the ethnic game and carry on with his ministry against corruption.  His hands will likely get dirty looking for mud to sling on Muluzi, but that shouldn’t be too hard to find given Muluzi’s tainted years in office.